We all know what a mainframe is, but what do people mean when they describe something as a disruptive technology? Well, basically, a disruptive technology is something that changes the way we do things and changes people’s behaviour. An example might be the mobile phone – or, more particularly, the arrival of the smart phone. If you look at films or TV programmes made before 2010, people are just walking around looking where they are going and talking to their companions. If you look at current films and TV programmes, everyone seems to be looking at their phone. They are sending text messages or using apps to check their bank accounts or get discounts at supermarkets, or they are keeping up with social media, and, very rarely, they are making phone calls. There’s an obvious difference in their behaviour.
A disruptive technology typically comes with new tools or devices that change people’s lives. And, importantly, it creates new jobs and new markets, and new ways of doing things. Again, if you look at older films and TV programmes, we see the boss with his (and it usually is a man’s) secretary working in the outer office. She takes dictation from her boss and types up letters and memos. With the introduction of the laptop, the boss – and now it could be a man or woman – will write their own emails. There’s no need for that outer office or that job role.
In many ways, you might think of Zoom and Teams as being disruptive technologies because they have enabled so many people to work from home and still maintain contact with their colleagues and customers from wherever they are. I’ve known people go into their company office in recent times and been disappointed at how few staff are actually there. Completely gone is the buzz that there used to be when everyone was in work and sharing their views and experiences.
Although disruptive technologies may be based on better ways of doing something that can be already done some other way, and although they may have been around for a while, it’s their emergence into popular culture that seems to suddenly happen. One minute no-one knows anything about them, the next minute even your gran is talking about it! Sometimes it’s a bit like bands, who become overnight successes – although they may have been working under the radar for a number of years. Mainframers may remember how Linux suddenly became a thing on mainframes everywhere, even though it had been around for a while.
The other characteristics of disruptive technologies is that they need to be affordable, they need to be easily accessible, and they need to be fairly simple to use. If they are clunky, although some people will have bought them, they will end up on a shelf unused. People may remember the Sinclair C5, a small one-person battery electric vehicle that was launched in 1985. It was basically an electrically-assisted tricycle. It was a great idea – electric cars are everywhere nearly 40 years later. However, it was launched in the UK in January, when the weather is never great. It had no roof to keep the rain off, and battery technology in 1985 was not as good as it is today. This attempt at disruptive technology failed, but many people still have fond memories of the concept.
Not all attempts at disruptive technology actually turn out to be disruptive. There are plenty of research and development teams who have worked on ideas that have never reached their intended market or have disappeared without trace shortly afterwards. Usually, disruptive technologies will co-exist with the older technologies before they catch on and eventually replace them. It takes a while for die-hard conservatives to make a change to new ways of working or living.
Organizations that are early adopters of new technologies that work for them often find that they are able to save money, which means they can offer products or services at a cheaper rate than more traditional businesses. And that means they can make more money. It also gives those companies the ability to respond more quickly to changing market places or enter new market places.
So, what disruptive technologies are mainframe-using organizations facing? There are probably two big ones at the moment. They are cloud computing and Artificial Intelligence (AI). IBM and other companies are using AI to help organizations to do more, faster. I talked about watsonx, for example, here. Perhaps one of the biggest challenges facing mainframers is the use of AI by hackers looking for easy ways to steal corporate data and encrypt that data in order to send a ransom demand for money in exchange for the key to decrypt the data.
Cloud computing has been around for a while, and, clearly, some applications work brilliantly using the cloud. I’m thinking of analysing big data here. However, there are other applications that clearly work best if they are kept on the mainframe. This might be because the data they use can be kept encrypted or because the data can be accessed more speedily than in the cloud. So, some kind of hybrid working is probably the best way forward with this technology.
Other technologies that might have been transformative, but have sort of been absorbed into the mainstream include blockchain and NFTs, as well as IoT devices. But, you never know what disruptive technologies might be coming next that will make working on a mainframe different and better. And it’s important to keep in mind that new technologies come with new job opportunities.
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